Will Iraqi Election Speed the Process of the Iraqi Dinar Re-Value?

 

Here’s a summary of the article “Iraqi Dinar RV: Will Iraqi Election Speed the Process?” (published 29 October 2025 on Iraq Business News) (Iraq Business News)

Key points

1. Background of Dinar Speculation
   The article begins by noting that many investors continue to hope for a major “revaluation” (often called an “RV”) of the Iraqi Dinar (IQD) — a sharp increase in its value relative to the U.S. dollar. (Iraq Business News)
   The piece points out that, despite decades of speculation, the fundamentals for such an event have not clearly aligned.

2. Role of Elections in Iraq
   The author raises the question of whether the upcoming 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election — scheduled for 11 November 2025 — might accelerate a revaluation or other currency shift. (Wikipedia)The argument is that elections often bring about political change, mandates for reform, and perhaps a greater push for economic and financial credibility — all of which could, in theory, support a currency revaluation.

3. Reasons Why an Election Might Speed a Revaluation

• A newly elected government might be more motivated to implement monetary or fiscal reforms to boost confidence in Iraq’s financial system.

• A strong reform agenda could include steps toward liberalising the currency, restructuring the banking sector, or working more closely with international institutions — changes that some speculators view as prerequisites for an IQD revaluation.

• Elections tend to coincide with announcements or “big moves” by governments wanting to drag a crowd and demonstrate progress before taking office.

1. Reasons Why It May Not Happen

   • The author argues that political change by itself doesn’t guarantee economic reform. Iraq has structural issues (oil dependency, fiscal deficits, inflation, and underdeveloped institutions) that make a simple “flip the switch” revaluation unlikely.

   • A credible revaluation would require macroeconomic stability, strong foreign reserves, transparent monetary policy, and, likely, closer integration with global markets. These conditions are not yet clearly present.

   • Past history: The “RV dream” has been promoted many times but repeatedly delayed — the article cautions that many of the standard narratives around the IQD revaluation have been overly optimistic or based on wishful thinking.

   • Regulatory, legal, and international obstacles remain. A large increase in value would have major budgetary, trade, and inflationary impacts that the government must manage.

2. Author’s View / Conclusion
   The article concludes that although the election presents a possible “window of opportunity” for reform that could accelerate change, investors should remain cautious.
   It suggests that the election alone is not sufficient to guarantee an imminent revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar. Many additional conditions must be met.
   Essentially: “Yes, the politics might create momentum — but no, that doesn’t mean the RV is just around the corner.”

Implications for Investors

• The election in Iraq could be a trigger for positive developments, but it is not a sure sign that the IQD will suddenly revalue.

• It pays to keep track of actual reforms (such as changes to monetary policy, banking regulation, and foreign investment rules) rather than solely political events.

• Speculation on a rapid currency jump remains highly risky and relies on many moving parts aligning in Iraq.