Chronological Thread of Violence Directly Related to Iraq's 2025 Elections Plus Maliki's Accusation About al-Sudani
Note: Iraqi Time is 8 Hours Ahead of New York City. Election Day: November 11, 2025
1. 15 Oct 2025 – Assassination of Safaa al-Mashhadani
Where: Tarmiyah district, north of Baghdad
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Who: Safaa (Safa) al-Mashhadani – Baghdad Provincial Council member and Sunni candidate for the Siyada / Sovereignty coalition.
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What happened: A bomb (sticky IED) was attached to or placed under his car and detonated, killing him and wounding several of his bodyguards. This is widely described as the first assassination of a candidate in this campaign. (Xinhua News)
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Relevance: Seen by analysts and ACLED as the single most significant episode of pre-election violence against a candidate in 2025. (ACLED)
2. 16 Oct 2025 – KDP candidate Mahma Khalil’s office was attacked and burned (Nineveh)
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Where: Shingal/Sinjar, Nineveh province (also linked to Mosul in some Iraqi coverage).
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Who: Mahma Khalil Agha, Yazidi MP and KDP parliamentary candidate in Nineveh.
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What happened:
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Unidentified armed men clashed with his security detail and then set parts of his campaign office on fire; posters and storage areas were burned.
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No casualties, but significant property damage. (rudaw.net)
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Relevance: One of the first clearly election-linked attacks on a campaign office after the Mashhadani assassination, and it targeted a high-profile Yazidi/Kurdish figure.
3. 17 Oct 2025 – Gunfire at the office of a candidate in Maysan (Badr candidate)
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Where: Amara, Maysan province (Hay al-Mualimeen neighborhood).
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Who: Local reporting and later analysis link this to Abdul Hussein al-Saadi, a Badr Organization candidate. (The New Region)
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What happened:
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Unidentified gunmen shot at the candidate’s office with small arms.
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Minor damage to the building; no casualties. (EPIC - Enabling Peace in Iraq Center)
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Relevance: One of the earliest provincial-level armed attacks on a candidate’s premises in the south.
4. 18 Oct 2025 – Attack on Azm Alliance candidate Muthanna al-Azzawi’s office (Baghdad province)
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Where: Yusufiyah, ~25 km south of Baghdad.
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Who: Muthanna (Muthanna Thaer) al-Azzawi, member of Baghdad Provincial Council and Azm Alliance parliamentary candidate. (The New Region)
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What happened:
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Armed gunmen opened fire on his campaign office in the early hours.
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Two bodyguards/associates were wounded; the attackers fled. (Arab News)
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Relevance: Heavily covered internationally; often cited as part of a “series” of attacks that followed Mashhadani’s killing. (The Arab Weekly)
5. ~18 Oct 2025 – Suspicious fire in another candidate’s office (central Baghdad)
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Where: Central Baghdad.
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Who: Unnamed candidate (reported as “another election candidate”).
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What happened:
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A fire broke out in the candidate’s office; it was quickly controlled, and no casualties.
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Authorities initially blamed an electrical short circuit, but the incident was reported in the context of other attacks on candidates, adding to public anxiety. (Kurdistan24 - کوردستان 24)
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Relevance: Ambiguous cause, but treated in local coverage as part of the broader pattern of campaign-period violence.
6. 20 Oct 2025 (approx.) – Gunfire at a candidate’s residence in Kirkuk (Badr bloc)
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Where: Kirkuk city.
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Who: A parliamentary candidate in Kirkuk, identified in Iraqi reporting as Mahdi Taqi Amerli, a Badr MP and candidate. (قناه السومرية العراقية)
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What happened:
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Gunmen opened fire on the candidate’s residence; no casualties reported. (EPIC - Enabling Peace in Iraq Center)
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Relevance: Shows that not only offices but also the homes of sitting MPs/candidates were being targeted.
7. ~21–22 Oct 2025 – House of Hasm Alliance candidate Nofal al-Luhaibi shot at
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Where: Near Mosul (Nineveh province).
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Who: Nofal al-Luhaibi, candidate for the Hasm alliance.
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What happened:
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His home came under small-arms fire from unknown assailants.
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No casualties reported. (قناه السومرية العراقية)
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Relevance: Extends the wave of candidate-targeted shootings to another Sunni list (Hasm), outside Baghdad.
8. 22 Oct 2025 – Arrests in Mashhadani assassination case (follow-on to #1)
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Where: Baghdad.
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Who: Iraqi security forces investigating the killing of Safaa al-Mashhadani.
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What happened:
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The Interior Ministry announced the arrest of five suspects alleged to be involved in his assassination. (Xinhua News)
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Relevance: Not an attack itself, but part of the direct aftermath of the most important candidate killing and frequently mentioned in election-security reporting.
9. ~27 Oct 2025 – Attempted attack on guard of Badr candidate Mahdi Taqi Amerli (Kirkuk)
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Where: Kirkuk province.
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Who: Mahdi Taqi Amerli, Badr MP and candidate; one of his guards.
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What happened:
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Iraqi media report a “failed assassination attempt” targeting one of his bodyguards, linked to armed gunmen. (قناه السومرية العراقية)
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Relevance: Another example of indirect targeting (security staff rather than the candidate himself) in the same province where his house had already been attacked.
10. Late Oct 2025 – Office attack in Maysan (Badr candidate) – cross-confirmed
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Where: Amara, Maysan (same incident as #3, but referenced in multiple sources).
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Who: Badr Organization candidate – reported by some outlets as Abdul Hussein al-Saadi. (The New Region)
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What happened:
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Small-arms fire on his office; minor material damage; no injuries.
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Relevance: Repeated in security bulletins as part of a cluster of gunfire incidents against candidates in Maysan and Kirkuk.
11. 28 Oct 2025 (approx.) – Sadiqoun candidate’s office shot at (Baghdad)
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Where: Hay al-Amil district, Baghdad.
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Who: A candidate from the Sadiqoun movement (political wing of Asaib Ahl al-Haq).
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What happened:
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Shots were fired in the air near his office by a man driving a “tuk-tuk”, prompting a police complaint. (قناه السومرية العراقية)
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Relevance: Low-level but explicitly election-linked intimidation of a Shiite militia-aligned list.
12. 29 Oct 2025 – Attempted shooting of State of Law candidate Amjad Talib (Basra)
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Where: Basra province.
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Who: Amjad Talib, candidate for the State of Law coalition.
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What happened:
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Talib reported that his vehicle was hit by gunfire from another car (described as a Crown sedan) in what he called an assassination attempt. (قناه السومرية العراقية)
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Relevance: This case is cited in European and German briefing notes as “Iraqi election candidate survives shooting in Basra,” and used as an example of continuing candidate-directed violence in the final stretch before the vote. (BAMF)
13. Cluster summary – “Seven parties targeted within two weeks”
An Iraqi investigative piece from Alsumaria ties many of the above into a single pattern:
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After Mashhadani’s assassination on 15 Oct, six further incidents of shootings, raids, and arson hit the offices, homes, cars or guards of candidates across Mosul, Baghdad, Basra, Maysan and Kirkuk within roughly two weeks.
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Candidates from seven parties are named: Hasm, Siyada (Sovereignty), Azm, State of Law, Sadiqoun, Badr, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). (قناه السومرية العراقية)
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The article notes that some incidents might be genuine attacks, while others could be “fabricated electoral propaganda” designed to win public sympathy in the wake of the huge reaction to Mashhadani’s assassination. (قناه السومرية العراقية)
So, even within Iraqi media, there’s skepticism about whether every claimed “attack” was a real assassination attempt, but they are all framed by local actors as candidate-related violent incidents.
14. Threats and non-violent intimidation (not shootings but clearly candidate-linked)
For completeness, a few widely reported non-physical but serious threats against candidates:
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Threats against reformist candidates – Reuters notes that, beyond the killing of Safaa al-Mashhadani, other reform-minded candidates, such as Tabark Tariq al-Azzawi of the Iraqi Progress Party, reported receiving threats and growing fear for their safety. (Reuters)
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Broader intimidation and disqualification – ACLED highlights a broader pattern of candidate disqualifications, legal harassment, and vote-buying, arguing that while overt violence is relatively limited, repression around the 2025 election is heavy and systematic. (ACLED)
These don’t involve bullets or bombs, but they are directly tied to candidates and shape the election environment.
Big picture
Putting it all together:
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Hard violence against candidates before 11 Nov 2025 is concentrated in October and consists of:
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1 assassination (Mashhadani).
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Multiple gun attacks on offices, homes, cars, and guards of candidates from at least seven different parties.
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Arson/intimidation attacks on KDP candidate Mahma Khalil’s campaign office and other premises.
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Open-source monitoring (AP, Reuters, ACLED, EPIC, Alsumaria, Rudaw, Kurdistan24, etc.) doesn’t show a comparable wave earlier in 2025; instead, earlier months are dominated by legal and institutional pressure rather than direct physical attacks. (ACLED)
The Most Shocking Event: Maliki Accuses al-Sudani of Trying to Normalize with Israel
Maliki claimed that Iraq’s attendance at the high-profile Sharm el‑Sheikh summit — convened to explore a ceasefire in Gaza — was actually the first step in a project to deepen secret ties with Israel. He warns that this amounts to a betrayal of Iraq’s wartime constitutional stance and an existential watershed for Iraqi sovereignty. (The New Arab)
He didn’t stop there: Maliki also alleged that the al-Sudani government is engaging in wire-tapping, leaking information, and orchestrating a “media blackout” to hide its maneuvers — a sign, he argues, that elections looming on 11 November are being stage-managed and the country’s foreign policy is being manipulated behind the scenes. (The New Arab)
Analysts, however, caution that Maliki’s accusations may be tactical — campaign rhetoric aimed at discrediting al-Sudani’s bloc and casting a shadow over the formal explanation that Iraq’s participation in the summit was purely humanitarian and aimed at stopping the Gaza war. They note that Iraq’s parliament passed the Anti-Normalizations Law in 2022 — which outlaws any form of diplomatic, cultural, or economic ties with Israel — meaning that any formal shift would have triggered legal action. (The New Arab)
In short, an election-year firestorm over foreign policy is raging. Maliki is blasting the government for a supposed covert pivot toward Israel. The government defends its moves as purely strategic and humanitarian. And Iraq stands at a dramatic crossroads — between shadow diplomacy and constitutional guardrails, between campaigning rhetoric and genuine geopolitics.
Al-Sadr Boycotted the Election
Muqtada al‑Sadr, the powerful Iraqi Shiite cleric whose bloc won 73 seats in the 2021 parliamentary elections, announced a full boycott of the upcoming votes on 11 November 2025. (شفق نيوز)
He argued that participation would only “entrench the corrupt and strengthen their dominance,” calling on his supporters to reject what he considers a tainted system rather than vote for any candidate who has already held office. (شفق نيوز)
Keywords: Iraq 2025 elections, Safaa al-Mashhadani assassination, Nouri al-Maliki Israel accusation, Iraq Israel normalization, Iraq election violence, Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Sudani government controversy, Iraq political crisis
