Iraq's ability to govern is being brought into question; This is most serious

It is worth noting that key figures in prominent Iraqi factions, including the leader of the Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada militia, have openly dismissed the idea of stopping or decreasing their activities. Their unwavering determination to continue engaging in hostilities is directly tied to external circumstances, particularly the conflict in Gaza. These statements highlight the multifaceted nature of the situation and the strong driving forces behind these militias' behavior, making it increasingly difficult for investigations alone to effectively tackle the root problems.

Moreover, senior officials within Kata'ib Hezbollah, another influential militia group, have unabashedly vowed to continue targeting US assets in Iraq. In addition to defying the Iraqi leader's directives, this unyielding stance underscores the persistence of grievances that fuel hostilities.

One of the most worrying aspects is the overt challenge these militias issue to the Iraqi leadership. They assert that Iraqi security forces that cooperate with US forces are “accomplices in its crimes.” This audacious assertion undermines not only the Iraqi government’s authority, but also exacerbates internal divisions, complicating any prospects for reconciliation or resolution.

A quick perusal of Iraqi TV broadcasts clearly shows that pro-Iran militia leaders have no respect for the power invested in the prime minister and the laws of Iraq. This worrisome lack of regard for established structures of governance raises red flags about the potential influence these militias may have, possibly even undermining Al-Sudani's authority. The actions and words of these leaders suggest that they operate beyond legal boundaries without consequences, which directly challenges the core principles of democratic governance and rule of law that Iraq strives to uphold.

The potential for Tehran to employ these militias as pawns for its foreign agenda or manipulate the Iraqi government through them is a deeply concerning situation. It brings forth urgent concerns about Iraq's sovereignty and its capacity to make autonomous choices amidst outside influences. Likewise, it highlights the unstable and precarious state of the political and security environment in Iraq, where external forces supporting non-state actors have the ability to disrupt and destabilize national stability and governance.

Irrefutably, the Iranian regime desires to damage the bilateral relationships between Baghdad and Washington. If successful, this would have grave consequences for Iraq, profoundly affecting its political, economic, and security dynamics.

The severing of US ties with Iraq may result in an escalation of political instability within the country, amplifying internal conflicts and violence as different groups compete for control. Iraq's delicate political situation is marked by numerous ethnic and sectarian divides, and US engagement has helped maintain a sense of stability by acting as a mediator between various factions. However, the termination of relations between the two nations could heighten political unrest and further aggravate internal disputes, potentially resulting in acts of violence.

Likewise, the US has helped Iraq fight various extremist groups, including Daesh. With a complete disengagement, Iraq may not be able to effectively fight these threats. As a result, extremist groups may be able to regroup and gain strength, posing a threat to Iraq as well as regional and global security.

Iraq's economy is closely tied to the US through trade, investments, and oil exports. The disruption of this relationship could cause economic hardship in Iraq.

The consequences have a humanitarian angle as well. Washington has been providing humanitarian aid and assistance to the central government, including support for displaced populations and reconstruction efforts. In some parts of Iraq, the humanitarian situation is dire enough that stopping these programs would negatively impact them.

In order to prevent any deterioration in relations with Washington, Al-Sudani and other Iraqi political leaders need to remain acutely aware of Iran's ambitions. It is in Iraq's best interest to maintain balanced and constructive international relations for its prosperity and stability. Failure to do so could have dire consequences, with the ultimate losers being the Iraqi people.

The Bottom Line:

Iraq cannot afford to lose documented friendship with the US.  Iraq's ability to pull through and prosperity and stability depends on its alliance with the United States.   There are signed agreements at play.  No doubt Iran wants Iraq to forgo its relationship with the West.  But here's the deal.  The people of Iraq know what's going on and if they sit back and say nothing, when or if the US protects itself against the aggressions, it will be the Iraqi people who will suffer in the long run.   

It is something about ISIS that we do not yet understand.  The United States, Europe and even the Middle East have a deep fear about ISIS, over and above the violent acts they have committed.  It is almost as if ISIS is controlled from the depts of Africa.   If Iran and the proxies were to push this issue to the limits, can they, the Iran-Backed Militants stand up against ISIS?