30-Day VND Timeline for IQD/VND Investors
Tracking the Vietnamese Dong (VND) has never been more important. Over the past month, Vietnam’s currency has shown signs of stress, heavy intervention, and a widening gap between official and real-market rates. Here’s a clear, chronological timeline of what’s happened — and why it matters to investors holding the VND alongside the IQD.
Late October 2025 — Pressure Builds
October 22–31
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The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) sells over $1.5 billion in FX forwards to calm USD/VND volatility.
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The unofficial (street) exchange rate surges past 27,700, marking a 12-year high.
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Official bank rates stay near 26,100, creating a 1,500–1,700 VND gap — the widest in more than a decade.
Investor Insight:
The large gap indicates heavy real-market demand for U.S. dollars and reveals where true market pressure exists — far beyond the official numbers.
Early November 2025 — Controlled Weakening Begins
November 1–5
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SBV allows the VND to weaken gradually through adjustments in the daily reference rate.
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The official reference rate climbs from 25,097 to 25,100+, signaling policy-guided depreciation.
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Analysts report the VND fell only 0.34% in October, a mild decline thanks to SBV intervention.
Investor Insight:
The SBV is managing a slow, deliberate weakening to avoid panic and protect reserves.
November 6–10 — Banks Adjust Forecasts
November 6
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Market commentary reveals the VND is among Asia’s weakest currencies in 2025.
November 10
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UOB revises projections:
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Q4 2025: ~26,400 VND/USD
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Q1 2026: ~26,300 VND/USD
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Analysts confirm the VND is near its record low of 26,436.
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Reports show the SBV has sold $4.4 billion in FX since late summer.
Investor Insight:
Vietnam is defending the currency, but analysts expect continued, though controlled, depreciation.
November 11–14 — Record 10–11% Gap Emerges
November 11
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SBV raises the reference rate significantly to 25,118.
November 12
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Reference rate: 25,129
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Black-market mid-rate: 27,725
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Gap hits 10.3% — the highest in over a decade.
November 13–14
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Reference rate gradually reduces to 25,125 → 25,122.
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Banks quote around 26,138–26,378.
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Street rate climbs to 27,835, widening the gap to ≈10.8%.
Investor Insight:
The street rate now reflects the true USD demand, suggesting deeper currency pressure than official numbers indicate.
What This Means for IQD/VND Investors
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Vietnam is managing a controlled, step-by-step depreciation of the dong.
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The growing gap between official and street rates reflects real market pressure.
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SBV is using reserves and forward contracts aggressively, but long-term trends point to continued weakness unless dollar flows improve.
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For investors holding both IQD and VND, Vietnam’s currency trajectory provides clues about government stability, foreign reserves, and timing expectations.