China is Investing Massive Money into Iraq

 

 What we know

• According to China’s commercial data, the yearly outward direct investment (ODI) from China into Iraq in 2022 was about US$324.76 million. (Mepei)

• For 2023, the same series records a negative number of –US$24.56 million, indicating net disinvestment or re-patriation of capital rather than fresh investment. (CEIC Data)

• A Chinese official summary says that as of the end of 2022, Chinese companies’ stock of direct investment (i.e., cumulative investment, not necessarily new flows) in Iraq was approximately US$2.51 billion. (Chinese Consulate in Erbil)

• Multiple sources note that, since about 2015, under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework, Chinese firms have been involved in projects in Iraq worth “over US$10 billion”. (Fair Observer)

• Regarding contracts rather than pure equity investment: In 2021, a study noted that Iraq was the top target of China’s BRI, with contract values of US$45.6 billion (not all of which is Chinese investment, but an indicator of Chinese‐led contract activity in Iraq) in that year. (Reuters)

Important caveats

• “Investment” is a broad term that can include equity investments, loans, contract awards, project commitments, and oil-for-infrastructure deals. The figures above refer to a mix of these and are not always directly comparable.

• Flow data (new annual investment) is patchy and sometimes shows disinvestment (as with 2023). It may not reflect all data because some deals are off-balance sheet or classified.

• The “stock” number (US$2.51 billion) reflects cumulative direct investment by Chinese companies in Iraq as of a certain date; it does not equal how much China invests per month or per year going forward.

• I did not find a reliable public figure that breaks Chinese investment in Iraq down into a monthly average.

• Some large deals are announced (for example, oil-infrastructure deals), but their actual disbursement (money spent) often lags, so committed vs. actual investment may differ.

• Contract values (e.g., US$45.6 billion BRI value in 2021) are not the same as money actually invested — they are project awards.

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Quick takeaway

• Chinese direct investment flows into Iraq in 2022 were on the order of US$300-400 million (approx).

• The cumulative Chinese direct investment stock in Iraq as of the end of 2022 is about US$2.5 billion.

• There is no reliable publicly disclosed monthly average of how much China invests in Iraq each month.

• Contract values suggest Chinese/Chinese-led companies are active at much higher nominal scales (tens of billions of dollars), but those are commitments, contracts or awards — not necessarily money actually invested month by month.